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Vortrag von Carsten Hartmann im MODUS-Oberseminar: „Duality of estimation and control, with application to the simulation of rare events“

Mittwoch, den 11. Dezember 2024 um 12:15 Uhr

Am Mittwoch, dem 11. Dezember 2024, um 12:15 Uhr spricht im S 102, FAN, Gebäudeteil „FAN-B“

Herr Prof. Dr. Carsten Hartmann
Fachgebiet Stochastik und ihre Anwendungen
Institut für Mathematik
Fakultät 1: MINT – Mathematik, Informatik, Physik, Elektro- und Informationstechnik
BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg

im Rahmen des

Forschungszentrums für Modellierung und Simulation (MODUS).

über das Thema

„Duality of estimation and control, with application to the simulation of rare events“.

ABSTRACT:

A computational problem in statistics concerns the reduction of the variance of an estimator of some quantity of interest. A typical example is rare event simulation, for which the standard deviation of most Monte Carlo estimators can be orders of magnitude larger than the quantity of interest. In this talk, I will explain how the development of variance reduction algorithms for rare events can benefit from exploiting variational principles from statistical mechanics in combination with techniques from stochastic optimal control. A particular focus will be on stochastic differential equations and rare events that involve unbounded random stopping times, which pose a particular challenge because the computational complexity of the rare event simulation also depends on average simulation time per sample that is not controlled by the variance. I will present recent results that reveal an unexpected connection between different rare event simulation algorithms and discuss further applications of statistical mechanics principles in computational stochastics.

Weitere Einzelheiten erfahren Sie auf

des MODUS-Forschungszentrums.

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